Mitchell Trubisky got a win in his Pittsburgh Steeler debut. This was much more closely related to his defense’s ability to force five Joe Burrow turnovers than anything Trubisky brought to the table.
Still, he didn’t throw an interception, was only sacked once and avoided the drive-derailing negative plays that would have strained an already put-upon defense. A win’s a win, and toppling the defending AFC champions on the road provided hope for the first year of the post-Ben Roethlisberger era.
This hope was short-lived. Mike Tomlin’s first attempt to beat the New England Patriots in the post-Tom Brady era ended in a 17-14 defeat in a wildly uninteresting game. Trubisky’s line was fine as long as you don’t stare at it too hard. He completed 64 percent of his passes! He was only sacked or hit six times! He didn’t, uh, throw more interceptions than touchdowns?
Those numbers don’t illustrate his penchant for checking down on third down and into situations with almost no chance of success. Here he is in the third quarter, blanking an open Diontae Johnson in the red zone in order to throw a pass behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-eight:
Here’s another third-and-eight in which his only hope is for Najee Harris to make a super-human play:
Mitch KEEPS DOING THIS STUFF on third and long pic.twitter.com/s8vDpk4Zwe
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 18, 2022
Granted, that’s not a completely terrible idea when you’ve got a running back who can do this:
Najee Harris tossed 'em and hurdled the next guy
📺: #NEvsPIT on CBS 📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/63C0YRqyqR pic.twitter.com/cC0lBTpkNi
But not even prime Barry Sanders is getting eight yards out of that. This is, sadly, not the function of a timid quarterback adjusting to his new system. This is a deeply ingrained flaw that’s slowly been leaking to the surface for years.
Mitchell Trubisky really threw a three-yard checkdown to his tight end on 4th-and-23 pic.twitter.com/bYEOYgv6wl
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 23, 2019
Trubisky was safe in Week 1 and a defense that sacked Joe Burrow seven times and hit him 11 more did enough to push the Steelers to victory. Without T.J. Watt in Week 2, Mac Jones’ jersey stayed clean. He was hit three times. He wasn’t sacked at all.
That put the onus on the offense to succeed. This is not where Trubisky thrives. The former Nickelodeon Valuable Player (2021) only attempted three deep balls in his 33 passes, one of which was a half-ending Hail Mary that failed to breach the Patriots’ 10-yard line. He completed just four of 10 passes 10+ yards downfield, which included an interception and a 22.9 passer rating.
This is all evidence that Kenny Pickett, for all the downfield misses that occasionally popped up on his college film, cannot be more of a detriment to this team than the quarterback he’d replace. The Steelers are well aware of the damage a passer who can’t throw downfield creates; that pretty much sums up the final two years of Roethlisberger’s career.
The fans seemed keenly aware of this at not-Heinz Field Sunday. They let Trubisky know just how weak his check-downs were with choruses of boos. Pickett may not be in line for a Week 3 start, but one more stretch of screen pass throws on third-and-long could be all Mike Tomlin needs to see before throwing his rookie into the fire.
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