How Hurricane Ian's shifting forecast caught so many off guard

2022-10-03 21:16:41 By : Ms. Angela Zhang

Hurricane Ian was a nightmare of a storm to forecast, and experts say the tools meteorologists used to assess and communicate its likely path were part of the problem.

Why it matters: With the death toll mounting, meteorologists, emergency managers and others are asking how they could have done a better job making clear the storm would devastate the Ft. Myers area — and what lessons they can learn for the next storm.

The big picture: Several factors combined to make Hurricane Ian the most complex domestic hurricane forecast in years.

Zoom in: In media reports, survivors of the storm in Lee County, Fla., which includes hard hit Ft. Myers Beach and Sanibel Island, have said they thought the core of the hurricane was headed for Tampa, based on previous forecasts.

Between the lines: Studies have shown that the 20-year-old "cone of uncertainty" graphic is often misunderstood.

What they're saying: Alberto Cairo, a journalism professor at the University of Miami who studies storm communication, recommends that journalists emphasize hurricane threats and impacts maps instead of the cone.

Reality check: Then there is the issue of how people process the forecast information they get.

What's next: In a novel study, scientists are examining how people receive, process and respond to changing forecast information during hurricanes.

The bottom line: Getting the risk communication piece right will be especially crucial as climate change makes these storms more destructive.

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